VR may remain a niche for longer than anticipated.
Originally published on Medium.com, Sep 9, 2017.
Recently,
a five-year-old boy came up to me and asked: “Can you go scuba diving
with that, too?” I was about to put on my Gear VR headset while waiting
for the train. Besides the thought that this question is not as childish
as it sounds (people have been doing underwater VR experiments), it
occurred to me that there may actually be more to the obvious visual
analogy between a virtual reality setup vs a scuba-diving rig. Of
course, there is the obvious similar silhouette of the headset and the
backpack in the case of a mobile VR rig. But, let’s think for a moment
about what the experience means for its fans in the context of a larger
audience:
Scuba diving is an incredible awesome experience, but does
that mean everyone is running out to get their hands on diving gear to
book a diving holiday? That is certainly not the case. In general,
people acknowledge that scuba-diving must be amazing, but have very
little motivation to engage themselves in the activity. Why is that?
Some people just don’t want to be submerged in an environment that is foreign to them
For
one, the expenses. It’s a luxury and so is VR, but maybe there is more
to it. Let’s say there was a free giveaway at the beach where you are
staying, “try scuba-diving for free,” do you think it would cause a
major stampede? I don’t think so. The lack of enthusiasm can’t be
because of safety reasons, because beginner scuba-diving is light and
super safe.
Rather, I believe that some people just don’t want to be
submerged in an environment that is foreign to them. My theory is this:
Immersion is a preference.
This frame … is not an unwanted restriction but more of a cherished feature.
A
lot of people prefer to be rooted in an environment they know and are
comfortable with. Their entertainment device, be it TV, phone, or
monitor is a window into a world of entertainment for them, and they may
not want more than the square area within which this entertainment
takes place. That square may become pretty large at an IMAX theatre, but
it is still a framed image. I have a theory that this frame, for a
large percentage of the population, is not an unwanted restriction but
more of a cherished feature. They like it that way.
This may be
difficult to understand for VR people who can never be immersed enough,
because the immersive crowd doesn’t understand the psychology behind the
reticence.
It may be that we have to settle for VR being a niche…
My
observation is that some people are uncomfortable with immersion in a
similar way as some people are uncomfortable with mind-altering
experiences, or unexpected surprises. Perhaps, they fear losing control
over their world. Perhaps, there is a general deep desire to be grounded
in their comfort zone and sit in the here and now of where they come
from.
I believe it is a character trait that is neither good or bad; it is simply a preference.
This observation may be a blow to people who believe VR could become the mainstream of entertainment anytime in the near future. Instead, it may be that we have to settle for VR being a niche, one for people with a preference for immersion… just like scuba diving is for the small crowd that is crazy for it.
People
who prefer to consume media in a framed device, whom I’ll call “the
framers,” may still be curious about a VR experience and enjoy short
blasts like you would with a roller-coaster ride. However, my guess is,
they are not keen to be engaged for more than 15 minutes.
That
behavior may shift over time, though. The framers may be willing to dive
in and out of VR if the devices are super smooth to handle and
lightweight, and the transition is comfortable and high quality. Until
then, we may have to settle for a niche, which is fine with me. A niche
can grow over time — and it can develop its own ecosystem and market.
Just manage your expectations if you are an investor.